BIWEEKLY UPDATE FROM THE DAVID PROJECT

1. The situation in Iran continues to develop.

a. Protests reappeared in cities throughout Iran on the anniversary of the 1999 student protests. Protestors were violently dispersed by regime forces using tear gas. Governor of Tehran Morteza Tamadon had previously warned “if some people make moves that are contrary to security initiatives under the influence of anti-revolutionary networks, they will be trampled under the feet of our alert people.”

b. Regime spokesmen have denied opposition and Western reports that any protestors arrested in June and July have been hung.

c. Reports from Iranian physicians now indicate that the death toll from regime attacks on protestors exceeds 100, mostly from gunshot wounds. Previous estimates suggested approximately 20 deaths.

2. Concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear program continue.

i. Group of 8 (G-8) leaders meeting in Italy discussed the Iran situation. U.S. President Barack Obama stated “We’re not going to just wait indefinitely and allow for the development of a nuclear weapon … and wake up one day and find ourselves in a much worse situation and unable to act.”

ii. President Nicolas Sarkozy indicated that Iran had until the G-20 meeting in late September to respond and “If there is no progress by then we will have to take decisions.”

iii. Reports indicated that Russia continued to oppose additional sanctions on Iran.

b. President Nicolas Sarkozy warned that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would be “absolutely catastrophic.”

c. Israeli National Security Advisor Uzi Arad indicated that Israel might adopt a ‘mutually assured destruction’ strategy with respect to Iranian nuclear capabilities. “The defensive might we have must be improved and become tremendously powerful, and create a situation in which no one will dare to realize the ability to harm us… And if they do dare, we will exact a full price, so that they too will not survive.”

3. Arms sales in the Middle East continue to be an issue.

a. Israel has now formally submitted a request to the U.S. to purchase F-35 aircraft. A contract for 25 aircraft is expected to be signed in early 2010 with delivery to begin in 2014. Price per aircraft is estimated at $100 million.

4. Terrorism in Egypt remains a concern.

a. Egyptian sources report that 25 Egyptians and one Palestinian belonging to the ‘al-Qaeda-linked’ ‘Islamic Army of Palestine’ were arrested and charged with plotting to destroy ships in the Suez Canal. The suspects were arrested after killing a Coptic Christian jewelry store owner during a robbery intended to fund operations.

b. Egyptian sources report that 700 kilograms of explosives were seized near el-Arish. Reports suggest the explosives were to be smuggled into Gaza.

5. Gilad Shalit remains a concern.

a. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak now claims that Israel ‘sabotaged’ a deal to return Gilad Shalit. “A number of conditions were set for a deal and we were already on the verge of finalizing and executing the first stage, but at the last minute you changed your mind at once, and the whole thing died. You caused the other side to toughen its stand and demand more prisoners.”

b. Responding to an earlier statement by Mubarak that Shalit is “safe and sound” a senior Hamas spokesman stated “We don’t know if he’s injured, sick or dead. That’s the truth, and there is no Hamas tactic here.” Shalit is apparently being held by a group from Hamas’ ‘military wing.’

c. A G-8 statement called on Hamas to release Shalit. The statement also called on Israel to open crossings into Gaza.

6. Diplomatic moves in the Middle East are continuing.

a. Israeli sources state that the U.S. and Israel are close to an agreement regarding settlements in the West Bank. Under the terms Israel would issue a temporary moratorium on construction but would be permitted to complete projects already underway.

b. European Union (EU) diplomats have retracted an earlier statement that Israeli settlements were “strangling” Palestinian economic development in the West Bank. The ‘unauthorized statement’ was blamed on the European Commission’s Technical Assistance Office in east Jerusalem which allegedly sought to ‘raise its profile’ and expand its mandate from economic and technical matters into policy.

c. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said that his country was encouraged by Israel’s careful acceptance of a two state solution but “a solution will not be found as long as the settlements continue to be expanded.”

d. Responding to an earlier statement by Israeli President Shimon Peres that Syria should not expect to see the Golan Heights returned “on a silver platter” Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem stated that Syria wants to receive the Golan “on a gold platter.”

e. A Hezbollah Member of Parliament (MP) met British MP’s in Beirut. This followed a meeting last week with British Ambassador to Lebanon Mary Frances Guy.

7. ‘War crimes’ allegations against Israel continue.

a. A new report by Amnesty International accuses Israel and Hamas of committing ‘war crimes’ during Operation Cast Lead.

b. A ‘United Nations Human Rights Council’ investigation into Operation Cast Lead is continuing. Led by South African jurist Richard Goldstone, the delegation visited Gaza but was not permitted to visit Israel and the West Bank due to Israel’s objections to the council’s history of bias. Meeting in Geneva, the delegation heard testimony from Israelis including residents of Sderot and Noam Shalit, father of Gilad Shalit.

c. Speaking on the fifth anniversary of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) finding that Israel’s security barrier was ‘illegal,’ ‘United Nations Special Rapporteur on human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967′ Richard Falk stated “Tear down that wall, Mr. Netanyahu.” Falk added “There will be no peace between these two peoples (Israelis and Palestinians) until Israel shows respect for Palestinian rights under international law…” In 2000 Falk argued that “Palestinian resistance to occupation is a legally protected right.”