BIWEEKLY UPDATE FROM THE DAVID PROJECT

1. An unconfirmed report has indicated that United Nations investigators have found evidence that Hezbollah was responsible for the 2005 murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Hezbollah has denied the charge.

2. The question of Israeli settlements in the West Bank remains an issue.

a. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated that Israel would not establish new settlements in the West Bank but that existing settlements should to be allowed to expand through ‘natural growth.’

b. Defense Minister Ehud Barak stated that 22 illegal ‘outposts’ in the West Bank would be removed and warned that force would be used if residents resisted. Barak also noted that “It’s not as if at the moment the last outpost is dismantled, for reasons of the rule of law and the country’s authority over its citizens, the Iranians will abandon their nuclear ambitions.”

3. Israel will conduct a five-day military exercise beginning May 31. The nationwide “Turning Point 3″ exercise will begin with a simulated Gaza war that expands into a war in northern Israel. The exercise also includes scenarios of internal rioting and terror attacks.

4. Diplomatic moves in the Middle East continue.

a. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas will visit Washington, D.C. this week for meetings with President Barack Obama.

b. A Hamas spokesperson stated that since President Mahmoud Abbas’ term in office had already expired he cannot sign any agreement, saying “He no longer represents the Palestinian people.”

c. The U.S. State Department has indicated that the future status of Jerusalem would be determined through peace negotiations. A spokesman stated “Jerusalem is a final status issue. Israel and the Palestinians have agreed to resolve its status during negotiations. We will support their efforts to reach agreements on all final status issues.”

d. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held a meeting with Hamas leader Khaled Meshal in Damascus. Israeli officials expressed their disapproval.

e. An Italian deputy foreign minister will apparently visit Iran, following the cancellation of the Foreign Minister’s official visit.

f. Arab League Secretary General Amr Mussa stated that reports that the Organization of the Islamic Conference might offer Israel a ’57 state’ peace deal were inaccurate. King Abdullah II of Jordan had raised the possibility in an interview with a Western newspaper.

g. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has stated that Israel is the main obstacle to peace in the Middle East saying “A state whose successive governments have prevented all solutions and whose current government is one of the most racist, can it be a partner for peace?”

5. Nuclear proliferation issues remain a concern.

a. North Korea has conducted its second nuclear test. Most estimates indicate the device had a yield of approximately four kilotons. It also test-fired two short-range missiles.

b. President Barack Obama condemned the nuclear test as a “blatant violation of international law.” Russia, China, Japan and the United Nations Security Council also condemned the test.

c. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also condemned the test, saying “Iran basically opposes nuclear weapons and favors international efforts for global de-nuclearization.” He added “Iran’s civil and nuclear program is developed depending solely on indigenous know-how and experts.” Cooperation between Iran and North Korea on nuclear and missile programs is widely suspected.

d. President Ahmadinejad has rejected a Western proposal to freeze that country’s nuclear work in return for no new sanctions. He ruled out any talks with major powers on the issue.

e. An Israeli government report has apparently indicated that Venezuela and Bolivia are supplying Iran with uranium.

6. Iran has sent six warships to international waters, including the Gulf of Aden. This is the first such deployment of Iranian naval forces.

7. Arms sales in the Middle East continue to be an issue.

a. A report indicates that Israel will accelerate delivery of unmanned aerial vehicles to Russia. This follows the recent termination of Russia’s proposed sale of MIG-31 fighter jets to Syria, and the apparent termination of the sale of S-300 missiles to Iran.

b. After a five year delay Israel has begun delivery of Phalcon Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) aircraft to India. One aircraft will be delivered this week and the remaining two in early 2010. Talks are underway regarding Indian purchase of an additional three aircraft, in a deal valued at over $1.5 billion.

A Note from The David Project: Due to the Shavuot holiday, there will be no update on Friday 29 May. Updates will resume next week.

SUGGESTED READING

Erich Follath
New Evidence Points to Hezbollah in Hariri Murder
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